Friday, May 27, 2011

Deadly tornadoes devastate the South: How to help (The Newsroom)

A slew of powerful tornadoes ripped through the South recently, leveling entire towns and killing hundreds of people in six states. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center was able to give 24 minutes' notice of the approaching tornadoes, but for many people throughout the region, that wasn't enough time to escape the deadly twisters.

The majority of fatalities occurred in Alabama; Walter Maddox, the mayor of Tuscaloosa, Ala., told CNN, "I don't know how anyone survived."

Below are organizations that are working on relief and recovery in the region.

AMERICAN RED CROSS: Opening emergency shelters for families affected by the severe storms.  To designate your gift to Red Cross Disaster Relief, select "National Disaster Relief" in the designation field. Donate here.

SAMARITAN'S PURSE: Sending Disaster Relief Units to help victims of the violent storms in Alabama and North Carolina.  To designate your gift to U.S. Disaster Relief, write "US Disaster Relief" in the designation field. Donate here.

SALVATION ARMY: Responding to the deadly tornado activity throughout the South, mobilizing feeding units, and providing support to the victims.  To designate your gift to support relief after these tornadoes, write "April 2011 Tornado Outbreak" in the designation field. Donate here.

AMERICARES: AmeriCares is working with the National Conference of Community Health Centers to assess needs and mobilize a response for communities affected by the deadliest series of twisters in more than 40 years.  To designate your gift to US Disaster Relief, write "US Disaster Relief Fund" in the designation field. Donate here.

DIRECT RELIEF INTERNATIONAL: Assisting local clinics and health-care providers whose facilities have been destroyed or evacuated.  Direct Relief USA has been in contact with National Association of Free Clinics (NAFC), the National Association of Community Health Centers (NACHC), and State Primary Care Associations across several southern states to offer medical material aid to partner clinics from the organization's standing inventory.  To designate your gift to Disaster Relief, write "Emergency Preparedness & Response" in the designation field. Donate here.


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An iconic journey: From village priest to Pope John Paul II (The Newsroom)

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Space aliens from Russia (The Newsroom)

All the Mulders and Scullys out there want to believe, but if you're gonna hoax the believers, you have to try harder than chicken skin and stale bread.

That's what two Russian students used to create a faux space alien, complete with its own Siberian "crash site." The pair's YouTube video of the supposed alien landing snagged more than 7 million breathless believers. Not quite so gullible? The Russian police. Investigators dug a little deeper and eventually found E.T. stashed under a bed in one of the student's homes. (I'm guessing they just followed their noses.)


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Sunday, May 22, 2011

Michele Bachmann

Current Position: U.S. Representative (since January 2007)

Career History: Minnesota Senator (2000-2007); Treasury Department tax attorney(1995 to 2000);

Birthday: April 6, 1956

Hometown: Stillwater, Minn.

Alma Mater: Winona State University, B.A., 1978; Coburn School of Law at Oral Roberts University, J.D., 1986; Marshall-Wythe School of Law at the College of William and Mary, L.L.M., 1988

Spouse: Marcus Bachmann

Religion: Lutheran

DC Office: 107 Cannon House Office Building, 202-225-2331

District Office: Woodbury, Minn., 651-731-5400; St. Cloud/Waite Park, Minn., 320-253-5931

Email 

Website 


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Newt Gingrich

Current Position: Founder of Newt.org, American Solutions and the Center for Health Transformation, author, Fox News political analyst

Career History: Speaker of the House (1995 to 1998), Congressman from Georgia (1978 to 1998), Co-author “The Contract with America” (1994), professor, University of West Georgia, Carrollton, Ga.

Birthday: June 17, 1943

Hometown: Harrisburg, Pa.

Alma Mater: Bachelor’s Degree, Emory University, Atlanta, 1965; Master’s Degree, Tulane University, New Orleans, 1968; Doctorate, Tulane University, 1971.

Spouse: Callista Bisek Gingrich

Religion: Southern Baptist

Office:
Office of Speaker Newt Gingrich
5555 Glenridge Connector Suite 950
Atlanta, GA 30342

Gingrich Communications 
1425 K St, NW
Suite 350
Washington, DC  20005

Email 

Web site 


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Mike Huckabee

Like Bill Clinton, Huckabee was born in Hope, Ark.. Huckabee’s  father who was a firefighter and mechanicand a mother who worked as a clerk at the local gas company.

He often invoked his poor upbringing on the presidential campaign trail to portray his life as a kind of Horatio Alger story and to connect with working-class voters. When he was 8, he recalled to audiences, his father took him to hear a speech by the governor who was making a rare visit to their part of the state. "Son," Huckabee recalled his father telling him, "you may live your whole life and you may never actually get to see a governor in person." He joked that the only soap he had growing up in his house was Lava, and that, "Heck, I was in college before I found out it wasn't supposed to hurt to take a shower." When he was 14, he took his first job, as a disc jockey, which he held throughout college.

Huckabee married his wife Janet when he was 18, and graduated from Ouachita Baptist University in just over two years, explaining that it was the most economical way to get a degree. In 1976, he began working as director of communications for evangelical leader James Robison during which time he also attended Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary. The work for Robison brought him to Immanuel Baptist in Pine Bluff. The church asked him to serve as interim pastor starting in 1980, and his career began as a Baptist minister. An experienced and skilled communicator, by 1989 he was elected president of the Arkansas Baptist State Convention,which boasted a membership of 490,000.

In 1992, Huckabee entered politics by launching a U.S. Senate bid. Though he earned the Republican nomination, Democrat Dale Bumpers routed him in the general election, 60 percent to 40 percent.Following that election, Lt.  Gov.Jim Guy Tucker (D) replaced Bill Clinton as governor of Arkansas as Clinton took the presidency. Huckabee ran to replace Tucker in a July 1993 special election. By that time, Clinton was already under fire over his tax plan and new gays in the military policy, and Huckabee narrowly edged out Nate Coulter, a pro-Clinton Democrat, 51 percent to 49 percent.

In May 1996, Tucker was convicted for arranging nearly $3 million in fraudulent loans, and forced to resign that July, allowing Huckabee to rise to governor. He was elected in his own right in 1998, beating Democrat attorney Bill Bristow, 60 percent to 39 percent.In 2002, Huckabee’s popularity declined over ethics controversies involving gifts and what was seen as the self-aggrandizing firing of a state official.

Additionally, the Republican drew heat for issuing a string of unpopular pardons. Despite the turmoil, Huckabee won  re-election that year against the Democratic State Treasurer Jimmie Lou Fisher, though by a narrower margin of 53 percent to 47 percent.

Huckabee entered the 2008 presidential race as a heavy underdog for the Republican nomination, registering at one percent support in early polling. Short of money and with a skeleton organization, the governor decided to concentrate on making a strong showing in Iowa, the first nomination contest. The state's concentration of working-class, rural, and evangelical voters made it ideally-suited for his populist message and emphasis on Christian values.

In August 2007, Huckabee made a surprisingly strong showing in the Ames Straw Poll, an early test of who Iowan GOPers will choose, with 18 percent of votes cast, which was second only to Romney, who earned 32 percent. It was taken as an early sign of his potential in the state that Huckabee, who claimed to have spent just over $100,000 on the event, was able to come close to Romney, who had shelled out an estimated $2 million for the straw poll alone. "This really was feeding the 5,000 with two fish and five loaves," Huckabee quipped afterward.

The former pastor's task was made easier because no other candidate in the Republican field was able to consolidate support among the key social conservative base of the party. Romney, Huckabee’s chief Iowa rival, was publically pro-abortion rights until less than two years before he launched his campaign for president, prompting many to question his sincerity.  Huckabee underscored this difference in an October 2007 speech to the Value Voters' Summit, a gathering of social conservatives in Washington, D.C. organized by the Family Research Council. He endeared himself to the crowd by saying that he was at the event "as one who comes not to you, but one who comes from you." He received a rousing reception.

In fall 2007, Huckabee continued to get high marks for his debate performancesin which he'd mix populist rhetoric with homespun anecdotes and witty one-liners. He also got considerable mileage out of his endorsement from action star Chuck Norris, who campaigned with the governor and appeared in a campy ad in which Huckabee joked, "Chuck Norris doesn't endorse, he tells America how it's gonna be." Huckabee also took out an ad that referred to him as a "Christian leader," a move that was criticized by some as being too explicitly religious.

By December 2007, Iowa had evolved into a two-man race between Huckabee and Romney. Feeling the heat, Romney began airing ads criticizing Huckabee for raising taxes and being soft on immigration. Huckabee's rising national profile also brought with it more media scrutiny. His record of granting 1,033 pardons and commutations during his time as governor came to light as did commentsHuckabee made during his failed 1992 Senate campaign calling for the quarantining of AIDS patients.

But Huckabee fought back by portraying himself as a victim of Romney's "desperate" attacks and noting that he was being outspent 20-to-1. On January 3, 2008, Iowans gave Huckabee a nine-point victory over Romney in the Republican caucuses, catapulting him to the top tier of GOP candidates.

As the GOP primaries rolled on, however, it became clear that though Huckabee performed well in states where there was a critical mass of evangelical voters, his appeal was not much broader than that. After losing South Carolina to McCain (who had gained momentum from his win in New Hampshire), Huckabee's chances of winning the GOP nomination faded. In the end, the Arkansas governor won seven states in addition to Iowa and dropped out of the race in March 2008with the second most delegates in the Republican field.


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Mitt Romney’s authenticity appeal on health care

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney used a speech on health care today in Michigan to send a broader message about his commitment to authenticity in the 2012 presidential race.

Speaking to a small group of invited guests and reporters at the University of Michigan this afternoon, Romney, as expected, refused to apologize for signing a health care law in Massachusetts that has drawn unfavorable comparisons among Republicans to the national law put in place by President Obama.

“It wouldn’t be honest,” Romney said about calls for him to apologize for the Massachusetts law. “ I did what I believed was right for the people of my state.”

Later, Romney noted that his current health care proposal was very similar to what he proposed during the 2008 campaign despite the fact that his experience in Massachusetts had gone from a political positive to a negative over the past three plus years. “I am not adjusting the plan to reflect the political sentiment,” Romney said.

After walking the audience through the “why” of the Massachusetts plan, Romney acknowledged that “that explanation is not going to satisfy everybody” and added: “I respect the views of people who think we took the wrong course.”

But, it wasn’t just the words Romney used that aimed to push the authenticity narrative.

He spoke without a prepared script and without a TelePrompter, choosing instead to use a PowerPoint presentation to make his case. He wore no tie. He was accompanied to the speech by just three staffers.

The entire presentation screamed openness, pushing the idea that Romney is someone willing to be transparent about what he believes and why he believes it.

All of that is in striking contrast to the way Romney ran in 2008 when his flip-flops on social issues created a destructive storyline that he lacked conviction on any issue — choosing only to take the politically expedient path in every situation.

He and his political team have clearly made the calculation that the only strategic path for Romney to win the nomination is to “let Mitt be Mitt” — to embrace rather than run from his past records and statements.

That approach is not without political peril. Even before he spoke today, Romney was already faced with a quote from the 1990s unearthed by a liberal Massachusetts blog in which he expressed support for the idea of a federal mandate that would require everyone to purchase some form of health insurance, a major no-no for conservative voters.

And Romney’s opponents for the 2012 GOP nomination will spend untold hours combing through his record to find other instances where, on health care and other issues, he has contradicted himself to try and play up the flip-flop narrative.

But today’s speech was a clear attempt by Romney’s campaign to send the field a message: Romney is done running from his record. The question in the days, weeks and months to come is whether that strategy is the right one.

View Romney’s presentation:

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Newt Gingrich to announce presidential bid


Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will announce his plans through Facebook and Twitter. (Mike Stewart - AP) Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will announce his plans to pursue the presidency in 2012 on Wednesday, according to spokesman Rick Tyler.

Gingrich will make the announcement first on Facebook and Twitter — a bow to the power of social media in politics — and then will sit down with conservative television personality Sean Hannity on Wednesday night for an interview. Gingrich is expected to make his first formal speech as a candidate on Friday at the Georgia Republican party convention.

The announcement is not terribly surprising as Gingrich has been eyeing the race for months and went through a bit of a false start in early March when one top aide said he was in the race only to be contradicted by other members of Gingrich’s leadership team.

For Gingrich, the presidential bid is a culmination of a long political career that saw him rise from a backbencher in Congress to the architect of the 1994 Republican revolution that saw the GOP take control of the House for the first time in 40 years.

Gingrich was elected Speaker of the new Republican majority and touted as a potential presidential candidate. But, four years later Gingrich left the House amid a tumultous personal life and following wrong-headed predictions about the 1998 election.

Since that time he has built an empire of outside groups — organized under the umbrella of an entity known as American Solutions — designed to forward his policy ideas as well as raise money for conservative causes.

Gingrich’s entrance into the race likely kicks off a period of frenetic activity in the 2012 sweepstakes. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is expected to make a final decision on the race by the end of the month — if not sooner — and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman is moving toward a bid.

Both former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty have formed exploratory committees and are expected to formally enter the race in the near-term.

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Saturday, May 21, 2011

Newt Gingrich announces for president

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich formally entered the 2012 Republican presidential race today, announcing his intentions in a web video.

“I believe we can return America to hope and opportunity,” Gingrich said. “We’ve done it before, we can do it again.”

Gingrich is scheduled to appear on Fox News Channel’s “Sean Hannity Show” this evening, his first public appearance as an official candidate. He is also set to sit down for an extended interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” this Sunday.

Gingrich is the first major 2012 candidate to enter the race. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty have both formed presidential exploratory committees and are expected to formalize their bids soon.

Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman is moving quickly toward the race while Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin remain on the sidelines — for now.

For Gingrich, his presidential candidacy is the realization of a long time ambition.

Elected Speaker following his central role in the 1994 Republican takeover of the U.S. House, Gingrich was floated as a potential challenger to President Bill Clinton in 1996.

He passed on that race and by the end of 1998 he was out of Congress entirely, resigning after his prediction of Republican seat gains in that election proved drastically incorrect.

In 2008, Gingrich took a very serious look at running but backed away at the last minute citing his inability to leave American Solutions, the web of fundraising and policy groups he has created since leaving office.

Gingrich’s long life in the national spotlight is both his greatest strength and greatest weakness in the 2012 campaign.

He is universally well known — and generally well liked — by Republican primary voters, a positioning that other lesser-known candidates like Pawlenty and Huntsman will have to spend millions to rival.

Gingrich is also widely respected in GOP circles as a serious and innovative policy mind. “Newt Gingrich has always been an ideas man, and I’m sure will provide a lot of positive input in the debate,” House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (Va.) said of the Georgia Republican.

But, Gingrich’s notoriety hasn’t always been a good thing. His personal life — he has been married three times — is likely to become an issue for some social conservatives and his penchant for rhetorical excess could well get him into trouble.

For more on Gingrich, make sure to check out:

* Gingrich’s Political Inner Circle

* Good Newt vs Bad Newt

* Newt Gingrich: Serious candidate or sideshow?

Felicia Sonmez contributed to this report

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Obama’s targeted reelection launch

President Obama entered his 2012 reelection race via a two-minute web video released to supporters this morning, a video that provides a telling window into how – and where – the campaign will focus in the coming months.

The video features five average people advocating for Obama and, as importantly, his style of politics.

Let’s look at the people first.

The first three voices come from three swing states: “Ed”, a white man from North Carolina, “Gladys”, a Hispanic woman from Nevada and “Katherine”, a white woman from Colorado.

The other two – “Mike” and “Alice” – are, respectively, a college-aged white male and a middle-aged African-American woman.

That, in a nutshell, is the Obama electoral coalition (or the one his team hopes to create in 2012): base voters in the Hispanic and black community, energized younger people and the classic swing voter in the new south (North Carolina) and west (Colorado).

And, it’s not surprising. It’s an attempt to replicate Obama’s electoral success in 2008 when he won every swing state but Missouri and put places like Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia, which hadn’t voted for a Democrat in decades, in his camp.

What’s more telling is what each of the five people say in the video, as it provides a glimpse into how a candidate who ran on changing Washington will position himself running four years later as the incumbent.

“I don’t agree with Obama on everything,” says Ed. “But I respect him and I trust him.”

That idea will be at the core of the Obama reelection message. Put simply: ‘You may not agree with me on everything but you know I always have your best interests at heart.’

It’s a message aimed directly at independent voters who resist what they view as overly partisan governance and tend to be attracted by politicians who think they are doing what’s right no matter the political consequences.

That’s the group Obama must win back – independents went for Republican candidates by 19 points in 2010 – to claim a second term. And, judging from his announcement video, that’s the group he is talking to first and foremost in this campaign.

David Brock super PAC staffs up: Rodell Mollineau, a former communications aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), has signed on as president of American Bridge 21st Century, a so-called super PAC with ties to liberal operative David Brock that aims to play a major role in the 2012 elections.

Mollineau, who spent the last four years overseeing the Senate Democratic Communications Center, will be joined by Bradley Beychok, who will serve as the group’s campaign director. Beychok managed Louisiana Rep. Charlie Melancon’s (D) unsuccessful 2010 Senate campaign.

The goal of American Bridge is to build an outside infrastructure to rival that of American Crossroads, the very successful conservative-aligned group that spent tens of millions of dollars on the 2010 election. Like Crossroads, the new group has both a super PAC, which can accept unlimited contributions and spend on direct advocacy for or against candidates, and a 501(c)(4) non-profit.

Brock, a former Republican, has become a force on the left — first by starting the media watchdog Media Matters for America and now with the Super PAC.

It’s not clear whether American Bridge will grow into the dominant outside organization among liberals, though. Two former White House aides, Bill Burton and Sean Sweeney, are expected to start an outside vehicle of their own that would almost certainly compete with American Bridge for donations.

Lewis gets in NM-01 race: With Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich running for Senate in New Mexico, the race to take his 1st district House seat is on.

After Democratic state Sen. Eric Griego announced Friday (before Heinrich even made his Senate run official) that he’s forming an exploratory committee, Albuquerque City Councilman Dan Lewis on Sunday became the first Republican in the race. Lewis was a pastor and a businessman before winning his city council seat two years ago.

New Mexico’s 1st is a swing district that Democrats took in 2008 for the first time since its creation 40 years earlier. But it has drifted towards Democrats in recent years, including going 60 percent for President Obama in 2008, so Democrats should have the early edge.

Hahn falls shy of party endorsement: A majority of California Democratic Party delegates backed Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn for the 36th congressional district special election on Saturday. But she fell just shy of the 60 percent she needed to get the party’s official endorsement in the race to replace ex-Rep. Jane Harman (D).

Hahn took 57 percent of the delegates’ votes, while California Secretary of State Debra Bowen got 39 percent.

Under California’s new “top two” election rules, which are being tested for the first time in this election, the two candidates with the most votes in an open primary advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. Democrats already had a system for endorsing candidates by local delegates’ vote at a pre-primary summit.

In a statement, Hahn called the vote “a game-changer in this campaign, and it sends a strong message that I am the choice for Democrats in California’s 36th congressional district.” Bowen argued in her own statement that the results show the party was “clearly divided.”

Harpootlian to run for S.C. Dem chair: Former South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian will attempt to reclaim his old post.

The very quotable and often politically incorrect Harpootlian earned 15 minutes of fame in early 2008 for accusing Hillary Clinton of using reprehensible tactics that he compared to something infamous GOP strategist Lee Atwater would use. Bill Clinton responded with an impromptu five-minute rant when asked about the quote.

Harpootlian will face two other candidates at the state party convention on April 30.

Fixbits:

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) has hired Wes Enos, who was former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee’s 2008 Iowa political director. Enos will advise Bachmann’s PAC, though the hiring is geared toward when Bachmann launches her presidential campaign.

Huckabee won a straw poll in South Carolina this weekend.

Former senator John Sununu goes after Sarah Palin and Donald Trump in the Boston Globe: “For the record, I do not view Palin or Trump as a threat to the republic. But like the framers, I have always felt ill at ease with officeholders or candidates who are too enamored with the idea of holding a particular office.”

Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty goes all Charlie Sheen on us.

Must-reads:

“Marco Rubio carefully reclaims spotlight” — Alex Leary, St. Petersburg Times

“Cuomo stands out among peers for low profile” — Nicholas Confessore, New York Times

“Jon Huntsman, the rock ‘ n’ roll years” — Ben Smith and Kasie Hunt, Politico

“Romney campaign shuns the limelight” — Matt Viser, Boston Globe

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Mitt Romney

Current Position: Chairman of Free & Strong America PAC (since May 2008)

Career History: Former Governor of Massachusetts (2002 to 2007), Chairman of the Republican Governors Association (2006); Vice President of Bain & company, (1978- to 1984 and 1990 to 1992); Founder Bain Capital, (1984 to 1990); CEO, Salt Lake Organizing Committee 2002 Winter Olympics, (1992 to 2002)

Birthday: March 12, 1947

Hometown: Bloomfield Hills, Michigan

Alma Mater: Brigham Young University, B.A., 1971; Harvard Business School, MBA, 1975, Harvard Law School, cum laude, J.D.

Spouse: Ann Romney

Religion: Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

Office: N/A

Phone: N/A

Email

Website 


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Pawlenty inches closer to presidential run

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Mitt Romney Biography

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Friday, May 20, 2011

Newt Gingrich Video Biography

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Newt Gingrich: Serious candidate or sideshow?


Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is running for president. But can he win? (Photo by Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images)Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has always been a divisive figure — even within the Republican party. So, it’s not all that surprising that Gingrich’s plan to run for president in 2012, which will be formally announced on Wednesday, has quickly divided people into two camps.

On one side are those who believe Newt is an old face in a party hungering for new ones, a man whose political abilities are only exceeded by his belief in those abilities. For that group, Newt is a sideshow — a highly entertaining one, to be sure, but not someone who is a serious candidate for the nomination.

“Newt’s name ID is 130 [percent] so just about everyone who has ever even flipped by a cable news channel en route an NCIS rerun knows who [he] is, and has an opinion of him,” said Rich Galen, a GOP strategist and former communications director for Gingrich. “He is going to have to convince a lot of people this is the New Newt.”

On the other are those who see Gingrich as the brightest mind within the party, a man with command over a range of domestic and foreign policy issues that is the envy of everyone else in the race. This camp believes that Gingrich will drive the conversation in the contest through the force of his ideas, win debates and propel himself into the first tier of candidates.

“He is an idea factory and Republican voters love him for it,” said Ron Bonjean, a longtime GOP congressional aide. “They have watched him on TV while his think tank produces a streamof solutions to America’s problems.”

Who’s right? Both sides — sort of.

Gingrich has been befuddling political analysts since he first won Georgia’s 6th district in 1978.

Long regarded as a backbencher, Gingrich is widely credited with the “Contract with America” — a mission statement of sorts that propelled Republicans to the House majority in 1994 for the first time in four decades.

Touted as a strategic genius in the wake of that election, Gingrich quickly wore out his welcome within the party — losing a game of political chicken with President Clinton over the budget in late 1995/early 1996 and leaving office entirely after his predictions of Republican gains in the 1998 election proved incorrect.

“If you added up all the IQ scores of all the other GOP presidential candidates, they might equal the IQ of Newton Leroy Gingrich,” said one unaligned Republican consultant granted anonymity to speak candidly about the Georgia Republican. “This is an extremely mixed blessing. Not only does Newt have a huge range of knowledge, experience, and ideas, he also has the huge ego to match.”

That dichotonomy is the essence of Gingrich the politician and has led many people who follow his career closely to think of him as two people: Good Newt and Bad Newt.

Good Newt can wow a crowd with the depth and breadth of his knowledge — on virtually any topic.

Bad Newt disappears down intellectual rabbit holes while speaking, losing the crowd in the process. He also tends to go for a rhetorical grand slam when a single will do. One example: His suggestion that President Obama had a “Kenyan, anti-colonial” mindset.

In other words, when Gingrich is good he’s very good and when he’s bad he’s very bad. And that’s what makes analyzing Gingrich’s impact on the race so tough.

As we have written before, Gingrich is putting the pieces in place to run a serious campaign in Iowa and will almost certainly be on of a handful of candidates able to raise the sort of money — tens of millions — to be competitive in the first few states to vote. He’s also one of the best-known candidates in the field, regularly notching double-digit showings in national polls of the race.

And yet, there is no one in the party — except those on the Gingrich payroll — who believes that he can stay on message (or close to it) for the entirety of the campaign.

Good Newt and Bad Newt will both be running in this race. The central question is which one we will see more of between now and next February’s Iowa caucuses.

For more on what Newt means for the race, check out our live video chat this morning where we break it all down:

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Of Newt Gingrich, presidential bumps and the first presidential debate

In case you missed it — for shame! — here’s the complete Fix Faceoff video chat we did this morning.

We covered questions from Fixistas on former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s soon-to-be-official presidential bid, last week’s GOP debate, President Obama’s post bin Laden bump in the polls and more!

Don’t have time to watch all of that? Check out the greatest hits from this week’s Faceoff:

* Gingrich’s candidacy: Instant analysis

* What’s Newt’s base?

* Mitt Romney’s approach in Iowa: Smart vs. not smart

* Pizza vs. Heroin

Remember that we do our Fix Faceoff live video chat every Monday at 11 a.m. So, put a repeating weekly reminder on your calendar and we’ll see you next Monday!

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Photos of endangered places around the world (The Newsroom)

We all know that climate change melts glaciers and shifts sea levels. But have you ever thought about how rising temperatures can threaten beautiful places in every corner of the world? Some of these spots may be closer to home than you think.

For Earth Day, Yahoo! News interviewed Gaute Hogh, publisher of the book 100 Places to Go Before They Disappear (distributed by Abrams in the U.S.). Hogh was inspired to produce the book after witnessing the effects of global warming in his native Denmark. He wanted to show how natural beauty around the globe could be forever altered by climate change.

"The whole purpose of this book was to show my children the effects of climate change," Hogh says. "People usually show someone suffering and I wanted to show the positive side of it: If we don't do anything, we'll lose some of these beautiful places."

The first place that came to Hogh's mind was the Wadden Sea, a low-lying coastal zone in Denmark where visitors can "walk on water" to see varied landscapes and migratory birds. Hogh fears that rising sea levels will make the crossing too dangerous and destroy its dynamic ecosystem.

"One of my missions with the book is to show teenagers, if you don't turn off the water or turn down the heat, these places will disappear," Hogh says. "They may say, 'Why should I do this?' But if I show them these pictures, they start to see it another way."

Looking beyond his homeland, Hogh and his team used 2009 data from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to cover a diversity of locations, both well-known and obscure. One famous locale is London by the river Thames, which could overflow by as early as 2025. Flooding would damage the city's underground rail network and could cost upwards of $48 billion.

Several areas in South America are vulnerable, including Brazil's white sand beaches by the coastal city of Recife. Increased flooding from Amazonian rivers also threatens the world's largest estuary Rio de la Plata, where coastal capitals Buenos Aires and Montevideo sit. It's also the natural habitat of threatened species like sea turtles, the rare La Plata dolphin, and the croaker, a drum-fish that croaks like a frog.

While many may be familiar with the precarious future of the Maldives, they may not know that even smaller islands like Tonga's Vava'u are also in danger. Said to be the best place to see whales in the wild, the small island chain is also prized for its vibrant coral reefs. Increased levels of CO2 are being absorbed by the ocean, bleaching reefs and endangering coral around the planet.

"For me, I don't care whether the place is big or small," Hogh says. "It's the same thing with people. No matter if you're black or white or Chinese or whatever. It's about treating each other with respect and it's the same thing with these small islands."

--By Allie Louie-Garcia and Thomas Kelley

For more information on Hogh's project, go to www.100places.com. The book also includes essays by Nobel Peace Prize recipients Desmond Tutu and Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC.


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Mitch Daniels

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Poll Watchers: Public views post-Osama bin Laden

The elimination of public enemy No. 1 – Osama bin Laden – produced a bump in job approval for President Obama in some national polls, with less movement in others. Underlying ratings of priorities and the war in Afghanistan have changed little in two new polls from the AP and NBC released on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Obama approval: Obama sees a seven percentage point lift in approval in the new AP poll, from 53 percent in late March to 60 percent now – his highest rating in that poll in two years. That’s similar to the nine-point bounce in our Washington Post-Pew poll on May 2, the night after the announcement of bin Laden’s death. Obama’s ratings saw less movement in the new NBC News poll, at 52 percent now compared with 49 percent in early April.

National issues: The overall ranking of national issues has not changed in AP polling post-bin Laden. The economy, education, gas prices and unemployment continue to dominate. The situations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya remain of lower importance. Notably, ratings for terrorism as a national issue didn’t change at all from March to May.

Afghanistan war: The two new polls show that the success of the bin Laden operation hasn’t fundamentally changed views of the war. The AP poll finds that 59 percent oppose the war, about the same as the 62 percent who said so in September 2010. And 80 percent approve of Obama’s decision to draw down significant numbers of troops in July, with 52 percent approving strongly.

The NBC poll asks a different question on evaluating the war and finds 62 percent defining it as a success, up slightly from 57 in April. And there is growing confidence that it will come to a successful conclusion: 38 percent feel that way, up from 31 percent in April. Still, despite getting bin Laden, 50 percent remain less confident in the successful conclusion of the war.

OBL mission: The AP poll finds an uptick to 60 percent in the number who justify torture to obtain information about terrorism, up from 52 percent in January 2010. Most people, 64 percent, say the government has released enough information about the raid. And an equal number in both the AP and NBC polls – 64 percent each – say the government should not release photos of bin Laden’s dead body.

Pew news interest: 50 percent said they followed news about bin Laden’s death “very closely” last week, according to the Pew Research Center’s weekly News Interest Index. Perhaps surprisingly, that’s not the most watched story of the year. Rising gas prices in April checked in at 53 percent, and March news about the earthquake and tsunami in Japan had 55 percent closely following.

By Peyton M. Craighill  |  01:03 PM ET, 05/11/2011

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Thursday, May 19, 2011

Ron Paul Video Biography

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Poll: Number of ‘birthers’ plummets

The number of Americans saying President Obama was born in another country has been sliced in half, according to a new Washington Post poll.

In interviews following the public release the president’s “long-form” birth certificate last week, fully 70 percent of Americans say Obama was born in Hawaii, a big bump-up from the 48 percent who said so a year ago. Even more say he was U.S.-born, or call that their best guess, for a total of 86 percent.

Overall, 10 percent of Americans say Obama was likely born abroad, down from 20 percent in an April 2010 Post-ABC poll. Almost all those who now say Obama was born in a foreign country say that it’s only their “suspicion;” just 1 percent claim “solid evidence” that the president was born elsewhere (9 percent said so last year).

The drop-off in the mistaken belief that Obama was not-U.S.-born has come most prominently among his sharpest critics. Today, 14 percent of Republicans say Obama was not born in the U.S., down from 31 percent in April of last year. Among the most conservative Republicans, the number of skeptics fell from 35 to 16 percent.


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Pick Obama’s new campaign slogan

President Obama has launched his 2012 campaign and with it a new slogan: “It begins with us.” (Supporters of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are already claiming the president stole the phrase.)

It probably won’t become identified with the Obama brand the way “Change you can believe in” or “Yes, we can” was but it’s still young in slogan years.

Think you can do better? Post your slogan on Twitter with the hashtag #obamaslogan and we’ll highlight the best ideas.

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Poll Watchers: Health care and the deficit, consumer confidence, Title IX and polling Hispanics

• Health care and the deficit: As in most political battles, defining the terms makes a big difference. The latest Health Tracking poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation finds 57 percent rejecting any spending reductions on Medicare as a way to reduce the federal deficit. But how potential changes to Medicare are described can result in widely differing reactions. Kaiser asked people who said they’d prefer to keep Medicare as is (a system of defined benefits) what they thought if changes lead to deficit reduction, more choice for seniors and greater competition among providers. Under this scenario, 54 percent of these people would support changing Medicare. But an alternative scenario was posed to people who initially wanted to change Medicare to a system of greater choice and competition. When confronted with the hypothetical scenario that such changes could result in greater individual costs and fewer benefits, 68 percent of these people said they’d prefer to keep Medicare as it is now.

• Consumer Confidence and gas prices: Bloomberg’s weekly index of consumer sentiment ticked down after four weeks of gains. Rising gas prices have soured the public mood. A Post-ABC poll reported on Monday that 71 percent say they are experiencing financial hardship due to increasing gas prices.

• Sex discrimination in sports: A CBS News/New York Times poll finds 78 percent saying Title IX – the 1972 law to end-gender based discrimination in schools – has been good for women. Men have slightly more positive views on this federal law than women, 84 to 72 percent. Specifically as it relates to sports, 62 percent of men say the overall impact of Title IX has been positive. Again, slightly fewer women – 55 percent – see it as positive.

• Polling Hispanics: The arguments for and against the practice of using Spanish surnames for sampling Hispanic poll respondents from lists of registered voters are laid out in competing memos from Andre Pineda on one side (mostly against it) and Matt Bareto and Gary Segura on the other (mostly for it).  

By Peyton M. Craighill  |  10:57 AM ET, 04/28/2011

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Romney plods ahead quietly in 2012 presidential race, but attacks are coming

Romney plods ahead quietly in 2012 presidential race, but attacks are coming - The Washington PostTWP_Debug.pagedebug && window.console && console.log && console.log('[' + (new Date()-TWP_Debug.initialTime)/1000 + ']' + ' js/head.jpt - start');TWP_Debug.pagedebug && window.console && console.log && console.log('[' + (new Date()-TWP_Debug.initialTime)/1000 + ']' + ' js/head.jpt - after wpost load');TWP_Debug.pagedebug && window.console && console.log && console.log('[' + (new Date()-TWP_Debug.initialTime)/1000 + ']' + ' js/head.jpt - after eidos load');TWP_Debug.pagedebug && window.console && console.log && console.log('[' + (new Date()-TWP_Debug.initialTime)/1000 + ']' + ' js/head.jpt - after ad load'); $(document).ready(function(){TWP_Debug.pagedebug && window.console && console.log && console.log('[' + (new Date()-TWP_Debug.initialTime)/1000 + ']' + ' document.ready fired'); }); $(window).load(function(){TWP_Debug.pagedebug && window.console && console.log && console.log('[' + (new Date()-TWP_Debug.initialTime)/1000 + ']' + ' window.load fired'); });TWP_Debug.pagedebug && window.console && console.log && console.log('[' + (new Date()-TWP_Debug.initialTime)/1000 + ']' + ' js/head.jpt - end');TWP = ( typeof TWP == 'undefined' ) ? {} : TWP ;TWP.Data = ( typeof TWP.Data == 'undefined' ) ? {} : TWP.Data ;TWP.Data.NN = {init: function(){this.pageType="article_story";this.canonicalURL="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/romney-plods-ahead-quietly-in-2012-presidential-race-but-attacks-are-coming/2011/04/30/AFHsc3MF_story.html";this.shortURL="";this.section="/politics";this.destinations="google_news";this.homepage=false;}}TWP.Data.NN.init(); SubscribeMobileConversationsToday's PaperGoing Out GuideJobsCarsReal EstateRentalsClassifiedsHomePoliticsCampaignsCongressCourts &LawThe Fed PageHealth CarePollingWhite HouseWho Runs GovBlogs & ColumnsTop Blogs

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Smaller TextLarger TextText SizePrintE-mailReprints By Dan Balz,

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Rarely has a candidate who is seen as a front-runner for his party’s presidential nomination been as invisible as Mitt Romney.

That alone made it noteworthy when the former Massachusetts governor showed up here Friday night to participate in a forum with four other prospective candidates — most notably former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty. It was just Romney’s second public appearance this year in the state that as much as any other will be crucial to his hopes of winning the 2012 GOP nomination.

Romney’s performance, before an audience that included establishment Republicans and grass-roots activists, was sound but hardly dazzling. His stump speech is a work in progress. The health-care plan he signed in Massachusetts remains a potentially big problem. His explanation does not satisfy many of the voters he will be courting in the months ahead.

Public appearances by Romney anywhere this year have been rare. He announced the formation of his campaign committee with a low-key video on his Web site. Major speeches have been fleeting (although advisers say those will come in due time), as have television appearances or interviews. When Romney has wanted to say something about an issue, he has picked the safest of all forums: the op-ed pages of major newspapers.

Events have conspired to draw attention away from Romney. Donald Trump has sucked up just about all the oxygen there is on the Republican side these days, descending from the skies here last week in a helicopter emblazoned with his name, trailed by the media pack. Spectacle becomes Trump and vice versa.

The comings and goings of other GOP candidates have taken whatever other space exists for discussion of the possible challengers to President Obama. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour out. Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) in. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels deciding. Etc. Etc.

That has worked to Romney’s benefit. “All of that takes focus off Mitt Romney so that he can just do his own thing,” said Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire Republican strategist. “Clearly, once that focus shifts away from the entertainment into heavy primary campaign issues, then he’s going to have to start battling.”

Four years ago, Romney was setting a frenetic pace. Then, as a little-known candidate, he was scurrying from state to state, running television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and doing everything he could to prove he deserved to be in the same league as the likes of Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

This year, he runs as if he couldn’t care less what others are doing. He has chosen the issues on which he wants to speak — mostly the economy and national security — rather than feeling the need to respond to the cable catnip of the day. Four years ago his team wanted to win every news cycle. This year they operate with seeming indifference to whatever may be trending politically on Twitter.

Romney has managed to avoid engaging his rivals, meaning he can concentrate his fire on the president. “They haven’t been forced out into the open yet, which I think is unexpected and remarkable,” said Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire Republican Party chairman.

Continued12Next Page

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The Fast Fix: Could raising taxes help Obama? (The Newsroom)

President Barack Obama is talking about ending the Bush tax cuts for households making over $250,000. Will that help Obama or hurt him politically in the 2012 presidential campaign?

President Obama has been talking taxes lately, a dangerous political game for any politician.

In his debt speech last week, Obama made clear that he favored letting some of the Bush era tax cuts expire -- meaning that taxes would go up on couples making $250,000 or more.

Republicans quickly attacked. House Speaker John Boehner called any debt reduction plan that included tax increases "unacceptable" and a "non starter".

While most Democrats have long shied away from a showdown over taxes, there is some evidence that the current fight presents a political opening for the president.

There is a widespread belief in the country that the wealthy don't pay enough in taxes.

A recent Gallup poll revealed that nearly six in ten people think upper income people pay don't pay their fair share.

And in a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, 72 percent said they favored raising taxes on the wealthy to balance the budget.

If Obama can keep the tax debate narrowly focused on the wealthy, he would have the public behind him.

The problem will be if Republicans are able to successfully make the case that raising taxes one anyone will weaken not strengthen the nation's struggling economy.

They've already succeeded once in out-maneuvering Obama on the issue, forcing him to back down from a similar proposal last December.

The challenge for the President will be in convincing voters that the outcome will be different this time around.

Obama is out in the country selling his debt plan and defending his tax proposal.

He knows that winning this fight on taxes and spending is critical to his chances at a second term in 2012.

Voters are worried about the country's economic future and the government's willingness and ability to tackle these big issues.

Republicans know the political stakes too, so expect a vicious political battle over the summer.

Get The Fix in your e-mail inbox! Click here to sign-up for the Morning Fix newsletter. Click here for the Afternoon Fix newsletter. Follow The Fix on Twitter @thefix or @thehyperfix.


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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

The Fast Fix: What’s Obama’s new buzz word? (The Newsroom)

As President Obama launches his 2012 reelection campaign"Compassion" seems to be the new "Change".  Just why is Obama talking so much about compassion?

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The Fast Fix: No Palin, Gingrich or Romney at first GOP 2012 debate (The Newsroom)

Why are there so few high-profile candidates in the first GOP presidential debate of the 2012 campaign, which will take place in South Carolina on Thursday?

What if we held a presidential debate and no one showed up?

On Thursday night, the first presidential debate of the 2012 Republican presidential race is scheduled in South Carolina but none of the best known candidates will be there.

No Mitt Romney, no Sarah Palin, no Mike Huckabee. Even Newt Gingrich is taking a pass!

Who will be there? Mostly a collection of long shot and no shot candidates like former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, pizza magnate Herman Cain and, yes, Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

The lone top tier candidate who will be on stage Thursday night is former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.

Pawlenty is not nearly as well known as the Romneys and Huckabees of the race and is hoping that the fact that the debate is being run live on Fox News Channel will expose him to lots and lots of potential Republican primary voters.

The danger of course is that Pawlenty could be dragged down into the weeds of the pet policy debates of fringe candidates with nothing to lose.

In many ways, Thursday's debate is indicative of the broader race for the Republican nomination. Most of the big names are content to stay on the sidelines for now, leaving the stage, literally, to people who might draw headlines but won't seriously compete for the nomination.

What would it take for me to become a pizza magnate?

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Setti Warren challenging Scott Brown in 2012

Newton Mayor Setti Warren (D) launched his campaign against Scott Brown today in a five-minute online video that attempts to take a strategic page from the popular Massachusetts Republican senator’s playbook.

Brown joins City Year co-founder Alan Khazei as the current top tier in the race with former lieutenant governor candidate Bob Massie also running.

On paper, Warren is an impressive — if little known — candidate. He’s an Iraq veteran with close ties to Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. John Kerry for whom he served as deputy state director. Warren is also the first popularly elected African-American mayor in the state.

“Setti has a great story to tell; he matches up really well against Scott Brown just because of his life experience,” said Mark Putnam, Warren’s media consultant. “He wanted to announce online because that’s where the grassroots support is in Massachusetts.”

Not every Democrat in the Bay State is on the Warren bandwagon, however. Some think Warren, who was elected mayor — his first elected office — in 2009 is too much of a political neophyte to step up to a statewide race. Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) has publicly said as much. Fellow Newton politicians have expressed similar misgivings about the timing.

“I'm probably about as well known as Scott Brown was at this point two years ago," Warren says in the video. He also tries to draw contrasts with Brown, most notably about talking about his experience in Iraq as contrasted to Brown’s time in the National Guard.

Brown is still doing very well in polls and ended March with more than $8 million in the bank.

“Scott Brown was elected to do a job, and his focus is on cutting spending and getting our economy moving again,” said Brown consultant Eric Fehrnstrom. “There will be plenty of time for campaigning later.”

Democrats argue that voters who didn’t turnout in Brown’s 2010 special election victory over state Attorney General Martha Coakley will turn out in droves in a presidential election year like 2012.

“When the voters learn more about Scott Brown and about Scott Brown’s record and they learn more about Setti Warren and what he believes and the positions he supports than I think you’re going to see a much closer race, and you’re going to see a decline in his numbers,” said Warren campaign manager Deborah Shah.

Warren’s candidacy is not expected to clear the Democratic field. Massachusetts is losing a seat in redistricting; if one or more House members ran against Brown, it would make legislators’ job easier.

Rep. Mike Capuano ran in the 2010 special election, finishing second to Coakley; Reps. Stephen Lynch and Ed Markey are also mentioned as potential candidates. Former Rep. Marty Meehan’s name also comes up in connection to the seat.

It’s unclear whether any member of the delegation will ultimately run — particularly with chatter that Kerry is in line to get a Cabinet job in President Obama’s second term, a move that if it happens would set off a special election.

Regardless of whether any of the House members run, Warren’s candidacy means that the Democratic race is headed toward a real primary next year.

“This is no longer a Senate race that will be won or lost in six weeks,” said Mary Anne Marsh, a former Kerry adviser, and a Boston-based consultant. “It’s going to be a tough 18 months for everyone.”

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President Obama, the compassion candidate


President Obama is pushing a message of compassion in the early stages of the 2012 campaign. Mark Wilson/Pool via Bloomberg President Obama has begun road-testing his 2012 campaign message this week in a series of speeches that can be boiled down to a single word: compassion.

“The America I know is generous and compassionate,” Obama said in his speech on the debt Wednesday .

At a Democratic National Committee fundraiser Thursday night in Chicago, Obama reiterated his “belief in an America that is competitive and compassionate,” contrasting that with a Republican Party that “is entirely sincere that says we no longer can afford to do big things in this country ... (that) we can’t afford to be compassionate.”

The electoral frame Obama is seeking to set up is simple: the 2012 election is not about an issue or even a set of issues but rather a broader moral choice about what kind of country we want America to be.

In many ways, that strategy is a return to the central tenet of the successful campaign of 2008: that voting for Obama was fundamentally aspirational, that it said something larger about who we are and, more importantly, who we can be.

Need proof? The two most memorable words/phrases of the 2008 race — “hope” and “yes we can” — both sought to invoke that somewhat amorphous idea that voting for Obama said something basic (and good) about the country.

Early indications are that Obama and his political team want to return to that aspirational, we-are-all-in-this-together messaging that delivered him victory with 365 electoral votes in 2008.

Of course, the three years that have passed since Obama won have been filled with economic turmoil and legislative battles — most notably health care — that have made him look more like an average politician than the transformational leader that Democrats, independents and even some Republicans voted for back in 2008.

Republicans will do everything they can to keep the election at a ground level debate of Obama’s policies, rather than a 10,000-foot discussion of what it means to be an American.

But Obama’s rhetorical skill — coupled with the fact that the GOP will be embroiled in a serious primary fight for much of the next year — suggest that the incumbent will get a chance to frame the race as he sees fit for the foreseeable future.

The big budget vote: The number of Republican defections on the budget compromise was hardly overwhelming Thursday, as the bill passed with 260 votes. But the tea party sent a message.

Fifty-nine Republicans — a handful more than rejected a short-term continuing resolution a few weeks ago — rejected the bill, while another 179 voted in favor. That three in four Republicans voted for the bill demonstrates a fair amount of party unity, even though some on the right were clearly looking for much bigger cuts.

On the Democratic side, 81 voted yes and 108 voted no, in what amounts to a more divided reaction to the compromise Obama and Democratic leaders helped orchestrate.

On the Senate side, the bill passed even more easily, 81 to 19.

Notable ‘no’ voters included most of the House’s and Senate’s tea party-affiliated members, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Mike Pence (R-Ind.), Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), all of whom are eyeing or running for higher office.

Redistricting update: Arkansas and Oklahoma are both moving forward with redistricting maps that are unlikely to change much in their current delegations.

Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D) on Thursday signed into law a congressional redistricting plan that should have little impact on the current map. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s congressional delegation has agreed on its own status quo plan, which sailed through a state House committee vote.

Though Democrats controlled the process in Arkansas, they chose not to overhaul the map, which could have given them a better chance at winning seats. Instead, a map that flipped from three Democrats and one Republican to one Democrat and three Republicans in November will remain largely the same.

That the Democrats chose not to be too ambitious with the map means they miss one of relatively few opportunities to add winnable districts. Arkansas is one of just three states where Republicans hold a majority of congressional seats but Democrats get to draw the lines. (At the same time, outside of Little Rock, it’s hard to find territory that isn’t conservative, so it’s not clear how Democrats could have done much better.)

In Oklahoma, Republicans control the process and could try to make things tough for Democratic Rep. Dan Boren, but Boren has held down a very conservative district for a while now, and Republicans in the delegation seemed happy to keep their four-to-one majority.

Fixbits:

Mitt Romney accuses Obama of demagoguery.

Obama thinks birtherism works in his favor.

Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) is staffing up for a potential challenge to Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Nebraska Attorney General Jon Brun ing (R) stands by his embattled fundraiser, onetime Warren Buffett heir apparent David Sokol. The Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly looking into an insider trading probe of Sokol, but Bruning insists there is nothing criminal involved.

Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) is set to endorse Romney for president.

Former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) is running for her old seat, which she lost to Rep. Frank Guinta (R) last year — setting up a second potential rematch in the Granite State. But she may face primary opposition from former state Senate president Maggie Hassan or DNC member Joanne Dowdell.

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) raised $1.1 million in the first quarter and has $2.1 million in the bank.

Meanwhile, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) raised $1.1 million and has $1.5 million on hand, significantly outraising his likely GOP opponent, Rehberg, who raised $580,000 million and had $933,000 on hand.

Bob Vander Plaats’s Iowa conservative group will decide this fall whether to endorse in the GOP presidential primary.

Must-reads:

“Independent groups expected to raise hundreds of millions” — Jessica Yellin and Kevin Bohn, CNN

“Trump’s a joke” — Charlie Cook, National Journal

“Census shows declining black population shares in U.S. metro areas, stirring redistricting fights” — AP

“Rumors of Democrats’ demise in the Senate are slightly exaggerated” — Nate Silver, New York Times

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Slideshow: Home sweet car (The Newsroom)

Seven families on the outskirts of Hefei, China, dismantle old cars as their livelihood during the day and live in renovated scrapped vehicles during the night.


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Space aliens from Russia (The Newsroom)

All the Mulders and Scullys out there want to believe, but if you're gonna hoax the believers, you have to try harder than chicken skin and stale bread.

That's what two Russian students used to create a faux space alien, complete with its own Siberian "crash site." The pair's YouTube video of the supposed alien landing snagged more than 7 million breathless believers. Not quite so gullible? The Russian police. Investigators dug a little deeper and eventually found E.T. stashed under a bed in one of the student's homes. (I'm guessing they just followed their noses.)


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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

The Fast Fix: Is Donald Trump really a Republican? (The Newsroom)

Just what exactly is GOP 2012 presidential contender Donald Trump's political philosophy? The truth is, no one really knows.

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The Fast Fix: Is Obama now unbeatable? (The Newsroom)

Will Osama bin Laden's death impact the 2012 presidential election?

The death of Osama bin Laden is a momentous episode in American history that will undoubtedly re-shape the political dialogue for weeks and months to come.

While making hard and fast predictions about what it all means for our politics is tough, there are a few ways in which the impact will be almost immediately felt.

First, there will be a period of putting aside partisanship, similar to what happened in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 2001 terrorist attack that introduced the world to bin Laden.

From statements of support by Republican presidential candidates to an impromptu rally outside of the White House last night, it's clear that at least for now, politics is on hold. The question, of course, is how long it will last.

Second, President Obama will likely experience a significant popularity boost in the aftermath of the news.

While the killing of Osama took a decade and involved three presidents and thousands of people, it was Obama who gave the order that ultimately led to the terrorist's death. It was Obama who announced the news last night. And it will be Obama who benefits most from a sense that he did what he said he would do.

This is a significant moment in the Obama presidency -- perhaps the biggest moment. Amidst the celebrations and renewed patriotism, it's easy to assume that bin Laden's death will be a significant issue in 2012. But, history has shown that a struggling economy trumps all else in electoral politics.

At the end of the day, the 2012 election will STILL be about the economy and how people feel about their financial futures.

But, this is a major win for president Obama that will buy him time and goodwill from the American people.

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Romney leads the GOP field on health care — at least in the real world

What makes Mitt Romney’s health-care troubles particularly perverse is that, by all rights, he’s the one candidate in the Republican field who’s really accomplished something on the issue. This graph uses data from the Kaiser Family Foundation to chart the number of uninsured in each Republican contender’s home state. In states where there are two likely Republicans — say, Minnesota, where both Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann receive their mail, or Texas, which elected both Ron Paul and Rick Perry — I’ve grouped them together. Look who comes out ahead. And not by a little:


Moreover, Donald Trump can’t be blamed for New York’s rate of uninsurance. Tim Pawlenty hasn’t done much to change Minnesota’s health-care system one way or the other. But Massachusetts’s leadership on this graph is substantially due to decisions Romney made as governor. Romney doesn’t look good because the Dukakis administration did the work for him, though the Dukakis administration did pass some important health-care reforms. Romney looks good because he achieved something important.

Romney’s record looks worse, it should be said, if you focus on costs. Massachusetts had the highest per-person costs when Romney took office and it has the highest per-person costs now. His reforms largely dodged the cost issue, arguing that access was a necessary precondition for cost control, and so it needed to be done first. In the individual and small-group markets where his reforms focused, however, insurance has become, on net, more affordable.

To his credit, though, the theory that expanding access can align the political incentives toward cost control is largely working out. The reforms gave the Massachusetts political establishment something to protect, and so they’ve begun focusing seriously on the sort of real cost controls needed to make near-universal coverage sustainable. The Patrick administration has proposed one of the most far-reaching cost control efforts ever seen on the state level, and the state’s largest health insurer is carrying out the most promising payment experiment we’ve seen in some time. Romney has a lot to be proud of, even if he’s not supposed to say so.

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With Barbour out, new questions for 2012 Republican field

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Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour’s surprise decision on Monday not to run for president set off a scramble inside the Republican Party for pieces of his financial and political network. It also raised questions about the challenges the party may face in trying to unseat President Obama.

So far, the GOP race has been notable for its slow start and the absence of a front-runner. It has been marked by unhappiness among potential voters. The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that barely four in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they are satisfied with the current field of candidates — about 20 percentage points lower than at this time four years ago.

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Obama, too, is less popular than he was when he was sworn in two years ago. But he comes to the race with the significant advantages of incumbency. As he steams ahead with fundraising and organizing, Republicans are under growing pressure to tamp down concerns about whether they can find a candidate capable of defeating him.

Barbour registered in the single digits in early polls, so his decision will not have a dramatic impact on the contest, at least in terms of voter support. But it will give some candidates an opportunity to nail down some of the volunteers who were committed or leaning toward Barbour as well as money that would have been his.

As a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and the Republican Governors Association, Barbour is the consummate member of the GOP establishment and is widely respected for his political smarts. Other candidates will compete for his endorsement.

His decision not to enter the contest, he said in a statement, grew out of his conclusion that he lacked the necessary fire in the belly. But friends of Barbour, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share insight about his decision, said he had come to the conclusion that Republicans can win only if they are totally focused on serious issues and not distracted by some of the side issues, such as Obama’s birthplace, that have arisen in the early going.

Barbour’s decision may reflect what some Democratic strategists were saying privately: that, for all his political smarts, he would fizzle as a presidential candidate. After all, he carried significant baggage. He was a lobbyist for tobacco companies and other interests, and had stumbled on racial issues over the past six months.

The announcement will put new pressure on some fence-sitters to jump into the race. That pressure will fall most heavily on Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who has been considering a run for more than a year and is planning to decide in May.

Daniels and Barbour are longtime friends and allies — Daniels said recently that if he didn’t run he might well endorse Barbour — and many Republicans assumed that it was unlikely that both would end up in the race.

A close adviser to Daniels said Monday that, “on the margins, it makes it more likely he will run.” But the Indiana governor has been beset by doubts and by what friends say is opposition within his family. He issued a statement praising Barbour as a leader of the party but offered no hint as to his own thinking.

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