Showing posts with label Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obama. Show all posts

Friday, June 17, 2011

The Fast Fix: Is Obama now unbeatable? (The Newsroom)

Will Osama bin Laden's death impact the 2012 presidential election?

The death of Osama bin Laden is a momentous episode in American history that will undoubtedly re-shape the political dialogue for weeks and months to come.

While making hard and fast predictions about what it all means for our politics is tough, there are a few ways in which the impact will be almost immediately felt.

First, there will be a period of putting aside partisanship, similar to what happened in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 2001 terrorist attack that introduced the world to bin Laden.

From statements of support by Republican presidential candidates to an impromptu rally outside of the White House last night, it's clear that at least for now, politics is on hold. The question, of course, is how long it will last.

Second, President Obama will likely experience a significant popularity boost in the aftermath of the news.

While the killing of Osama took a decade and involved three presidents and thousands of people, it was Obama who gave the order that ultimately led to the terrorist's death. It was Obama who announced the news last night. And it will be Obama who benefits most from a sense that he did what he said he would do.

This is a significant moment in the Obama presidency -- perhaps the biggest moment. Amidst the celebrations and renewed patriotism, it's easy to assume that bin Laden's death will be a significant issue in 2012. But, history has shown that a struggling economy trumps all else in electoral politics.

At the end of the day, the 2012 election will STILL be about the economy and how people feel about their financial futures.

But, this is a major win for president Obama that will buy him time and goodwill from the American people.

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Monday, June 13, 2011

Michelle Obama: White House rebel (The Newsroom)

By Lois Romano

Secret mall trips. Dining out incognito. Michelle Obama has constructed a life inside the bubble—and has her own sense of her 2012 role, Lois Romano reports in this week's Newsweek.

The most recognizable woman in the world routinely ducks reporters to have what she calls a "normal" life. Hiding beneath a baseball cap, the first lady of the United States has picked through sale racks in the frenetic Tysons Corner, Va., mall with girlfriends, bought supplies for her dog at Petco using her own credit card, and dined at some of D.C.'s hippest eateries largely unrecognized. So secretive are her outings that when Washington Capitals hockey superstar Alex Ovechkin tweeted a photo in April with his arm around her at a busy Washington restaurant, media organizations were convinced it was a fake.

Michelle Obama laid down her markers quickly and in a way that has set Washington back on its heels. The White House was not going to imprison her, the media were not going to own her, and she would not be driven by external expectations.

She was supposed to be a different kind of first lady—an Ivy League-educated, fashion-trendsetting professional who blew up the conventions of the job. No one could have imagined back in the heady days following the election that she'd declare that she would work only two or three days a week, choose a couple of politically comfortable issues, and stay out of the glare of the political spotlight. The result has been a low-key tenure that some have found to be disappointingly conventional.

But is it? What the chattering class has missed is that Michelle Obama, in an understated way, has in fact been transforming the joba€”but on her own terms. She may have disappointed the Georgetown salon set with a casual disregard for social convention and annoyed the old political-wives club by not indulging them. But she has also spent untold hours with the other Washington--consciously extending the reach of the White House into D.C.'s black community, mentoring students, and choking up when she reflects on her own success to offer hope and dreams. Later this month she will make an official trip to South Africa and Botswana to further expand her commitment to students and young leaders, education, and wellness.

In short, Michelle Obama has figured out ways to navigate the bubble while channeling her own passions and holding on to her life.

But her carefully crafted world at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is about to be challenged anew. Her husband is entering his reelection bid battling rough economic headwinds, against a GOP energized by the successes of the 2010 mid-terms. Barack Obama will need every ounce of his wife's considerable star power—she's polling 20 points ahead of her husband—to win reelection. Although the full-throttle campaign is still months away, Michelle is already traveling the country fundraising.

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She must once again find her footing in the part of the job she hates the most—campaigning--but one she happens to excel at. "She has always been remarkably effective because no matter where you live or where you come from, you can relate to her," says White House official Stephanie Cutter, who worked closely with Michelle in 2008. "She conveys the same set of values and experiences families all over the country live by."

So reluctant has Michelle been to raise her profile that it's been easy to forget what a ferocious asset she was in the 2008 campaign. Toward the end, thousands of people were pushing into her rallies, shoving babies at her for photos, and mimicking her J.Crew clothes.

Coming off that huge success, Michelle startled the political establishment when she announced that she would limit her public appearances so she could tend to her family. (Her staff concedes that her initial declaration of working three days a week has been impossible to maintain.) The president's strategists say privately they would have liked her to do some heavier political lifting over the past two years, but that she's not someone who can be pushed. "She was always a reluctant campaigner," says a West Wing staffer who has witnessed some of the machinations to coax the first lady into making more political appearances. "She demands a level of thinking-through that can be taxing on the staff."

Ultimately, members of her staff say, she had no interest in lurching from crisis to crisis as presidential advisers see fit. "She wasn't going to be always doing some one-off trip because a congressman needed to be stroked," says someone close to her, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. -Michelle's hesitation to leverage her popularity for political gain apparently drove former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel crazy during last year's hectic legislative maneuvering and midterm elections.

"I think she's willing to do things, but she's not someone you send out with talking points as an adjunct spokesman for the government," says David Axelrod, the Obama strategist who recently left the White House to work on the campaign and who has known her for nine years.

Meanwhile, outside allies and advisers have encouraged Michelle's staff to push the envelope beyond her two signature issues—childhood obesity and helping military families—and raise her profile.

She is heeding some of that advice with her June 21 trip to Africa. Mindful of the negative publicity she generated last year with her luxury vacation to Spain, the staff has jampacked this excursion with cultural and historical significance, such as a keynote address to the Young African Leaders Forum and a visit to Robben Island, the prison where Nelson Mandela was kept in isolation for nearly three decades for opposing his country's harsh segregation policies. (A meeting with Mandela, 92, is uncertain given his fragile health.)

It is a move in the direction toward more substantive exposure, but still shy of embracing the traditional public role that some would like to see.

First ladies essentially step into these unpaid jobs with no official duties and work to carve out an agenda that at best dovetails with the president's—or at least doesn't get in his way. History shows that finding the right issues and tone can be a tricky effort. Nancy Reagan was viewed as a vapid California socialite until she latched onto her signature "Just Say No" campaign to discourage teenage drug use. By contrast, Hillary Clinton drew harsh criticism for leading her husband's failed drive to reform health care. Michelle has come across as neither the doe-eyed adoring wife nor the intense political adviser. But she has been fully engaged in shaping her own image and goals.

Michelle's staff of 22 knows not to cram her schedule with events that don't serve some larger strategic agenda. "What's the purpose?" she frequently demands of aides when presented with a proposal. "Am I value-added?" Once she settles on a schedule, her staff says she will spend hours and even days preparing for one appearance. For a major speech, like her address to West Point families at last month's commencement weekend, she will hand-edit multiple drafts. Staff will then drag a lectern into her office, where she will rehearse the speech with a teleprompter for days. "She demands a lot of herself," says Axelrod.

Despite her commitment to controlling her agenda, there still are plenty of traditional obligations that can't be avoided, and at times the first lady may have unwittingly conveyed ambivalence. Congressional wives were disappointed in how a series of luncheons was handled for the 500-plus spouses: the women were invited alphabetically, which, several said, showed no effort to create an interesting mix of guests. "I went with the Ks," said one wife of a Democratic congressman. "I barely said hello to her." This woman contrasted the lunch with a similar event hosted by Laura Bush, who obligingly took a group of the wives upstairs to see the Lincoln Bedroom--and then posed for pictures with each of them in the room. "I admire what Michelle is doing with all her public-service efforts," said the spouse, "but Laura was warm and made you feel like you were visiting her home."

Michelle's social life has largely revolved around her tight-knit group of girlfriends, such as Jocelyn Frye, who met her at Harvard Law School and now works in the White House; Angela Acree, a Princeton classmate; and Sharon Malone, a physician and the wife of Attorney General Eric Holder.

Malone, who has become a social friend of the first lady in the past two years, sees Michelle as simply trying to "create a little bit of space to keep herself sane."

"You know there's a playbook in Washington about what you're supposed to do—well, she's not following the playbook," says Malone. "She's doing it the way she wants to do it by being very involved in the community."

The first lady has made regular visits to schools in Anacostia, one of Washington's poorest, most difficult neighborhoods. She has initiated a high-octane mentoring program, linking White House aides with urban minority high-school students—and, NEWSWEEK has learned, she presses famous entertainers eager to perform for the president at tony events for a quid pro quo: an agreement to conduct a music workshop for selected students at the White House while they are in town. In late March, Motown greats Berry Gordy and Smokey Robinson worked with a couple of hundred musically gifted students from across the country. At an earlier workshop, music students found themselves jamming one afternoon with five members of the Marsalis family—New Orleans jazz royalty—under the sparkling chandeliers of the East Room.

Washington's A-listers may not have swarmed across the Obamas' threshold, but the first lady assured the middle-schoolers invited to the White House one day, "While we live here, we're your neighbors. And we want you to feel welcome at the White House."

During a recent visit to Anacostia's Ballou High School, she took questions for 30 minutes. Asked what she would tell a teen mom who hoped to go to college, Michelle said she would say, "Good for you." She advised the students to think about what kind of careers they would want. "College is no joke because it is so expensive," she said.

The visit was part of an ambitious mentoring program she has held for students in Washington, Detroit, and Denver since 2009. In D.C., she has brought together a diverse group of female high-voltage celebrities who fan out to public schools. Students are later invited back to the White House to mingle with stars such as Geena Davis, Hilary Swank, Alicia Keyes, and Michelle Kwan.

"Nothing in my life's path ever would have predicted that I would be standing here as the first African-American first lady," Michelle has often told inner-city students, her voice breaking with emotion. "I wasn't raised with wealth or resources or any social standing to speak of."

From the beginning, Michelle seemed intent to play down her career credentials. A Princeton and Harvard--educated lawyer who held a high-powered job at the University of Chicago Medical Center, she promptly referred to herself as the mom in chief after Barack was elected.

In staffing her office, she surrounded herself with friends and some politically inexperienced loyalists from the campaign or Chicago, which led to a rocky start and some drama.

She has been through three chiefs of staff, three social secretaries, and two communications directors. Her first chief of staff had little management experience and was gone after a few months, after she and social secretary Desiree Rogers locked horns. Rogers, a glamorous Chicago acquaintance, was eventually canned when her profile became higher than the first lady's--never a good idea.

Susan Sher, a friend and former boss in Chicago, stepped in as chief of staff to help at a critical time and was well respected but wanted to return to her husband in Chicago. In February another friend from Chicago, Democratic activist and attorney Tina Tchen, moved over from the West Wing, an appointment applauded by senior presidential aides.

On a personal level as well, Michelle has kept her Chicago ties close. She moved her mother to Washington to help care for daughters Sasha and Malia; Miriam Robinson rides to school with the girls daily in an unmarked SUV. Michelle also brought to Washington from Chicago her long-term personal trainer, Cornell McClellan (who now has a robust White House clientele), and the family's personal chef, Sam Kass.

Michelle's reluctance to expand her circle may stem from the awkward early days of the 2008 campaign when opponents portrayed her as unpatriotic, snobby, and a caricature of an angry black woman. The president's advisers now candidly admit that she was poorly served by the campaign. Conservative commentators, who carefully steered clear of racial references when it came to Barack, had no such reservations about stirring up racial stereotypes about his wife. Eventually, Axelrod hired Stephanie Cutter to bolster Michelle's image and help her shape her passions into an agenda. She parlayed her interest in childhood nutrition into Let's Move, a national campaign to deal with an obesity epidemic among young people.

Michelle's other signature issue--helping military families--first attracted her attention while she campaigned in Iowa. She found herself in small towns comforting wives whose husbands had been deployed to Iraq and mothers who had lost sons. Once in the White House, she spent months consulting with families and veterans about their needs.

"We believe that this is what you deserve from us," she told the 200 military wives and mothers at the White House for a Mother's Day tea, her voice quavering. "Thank you for your strength." For now, Michelle has made clear that along with her mentoring efforts, these two issues will keep her busy and fulfilled professionally for the foreseeable future.

But on a personal note, her closest aides confide that there is one place in D.C. that she has been desperate to visit for another taste of life outside the White House--but so far it has not been possible. "She really wants to go to Target," says one confidante. "We have to make that happen."

Lois Romano is a senior writer for Newsweek/Daily Beast based in Washington. She was a longtime political writer and columnist for The Washington Post, covering presidential campaigns and Washington powerbrokers.

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Thursday, May 19, 2011

The Fast Fix: Could raising taxes help Obama? (The Newsroom)

President Barack Obama is talking about ending the Bush tax cuts for households making over $250,000. Will that help Obama or hurt him politically in the 2012 presidential campaign?

President Obama has been talking taxes lately, a dangerous political game for any politician.

In his debt speech last week, Obama made clear that he favored letting some of the Bush era tax cuts expire -- meaning that taxes would go up on couples making $250,000 or more.

Republicans quickly attacked. House Speaker John Boehner called any debt reduction plan that included tax increases "unacceptable" and a "non starter".

While most Democrats have long shied away from a showdown over taxes, there is some evidence that the current fight presents a political opening for the president.

There is a widespread belief in the country that the wealthy don't pay enough in taxes.

A recent Gallup poll revealed that nearly six in ten people think upper income people pay don't pay their fair share.

And in a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, 72 percent said they favored raising taxes on the wealthy to balance the budget.

If Obama can keep the tax debate narrowly focused on the wealthy, he would have the public behind him.

The problem will be if Republicans are able to successfully make the case that raising taxes one anyone will weaken not strengthen the nation's struggling economy.

They've already succeeded once in out-maneuvering Obama on the issue, forcing him to back down from a similar proposal last December.

The challenge for the President will be in convincing voters that the outcome will be different this time around.

Obama is out in the country selling his debt plan and defending his tax proposal.

He knows that winning this fight on taxes and spending is critical to his chances at a second term in 2012.

Voters are worried about the country's economic future and the government's willingness and ability to tackle these big issues.

Republicans know the political stakes too, so expect a vicious political battle over the summer.

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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

President Obama, the compassion candidate


President Obama is pushing a message of compassion in the early stages of the 2012 campaign. Mark Wilson/Pool via Bloomberg President Obama has begun road-testing his 2012 campaign message this week in a series of speeches that can be boiled down to a single word: compassion.

“The America I know is generous and compassionate,” Obama said in his speech on the debt Wednesday .

At a Democratic National Committee fundraiser Thursday night in Chicago, Obama reiterated his “belief in an America that is competitive and compassionate,” contrasting that with a Republican Party that “is entirely sincere that says we no longer can afford to do big things in this country ... (that) we can’t afford to be compassionate.”

The electoral frame Obama is seeking to set up is simple: the 2012 election is not about an issue or even a set of issues but rather a broader moral choice about what kind of country we want America to be.

In many ways, that strategy is a return to the central tenet of the successful campaign of 2008: that voting for Obama was fundamentally aspirational, that it said something larger about who we are and, more importantly, who we can be.

Need proof? The two most memorable words/phrases of the 2008 race — “hope” and “yes we can” — both sought to invoke that somewhat amorphous idea that voting for Obama said something basic (and good) about the country.

Early indications are that Obama and his political team want to return to that aspirational, we-are-all-in-this-together messaging that delivered him victory with 365 electoral votes in 2008.

Of course, the three years that have passed since Obama won have been filled with economic turmoil and legislative battles — most notably health care — that have made him look more like an average politician than the transformational leader that Democrats, independents and even some Republicans voted for back in 2008.

Republicans will do everything they can to keep the election at a ground level debate of Obama’s policies, rather than a 10,000-foot discussion of what it means to be an American.

But Obama’s rhetorical skill — coupled with the fact that the GOP will be embroiled in a serious primary fight for much of the next year — suggest that the incumbent will get a chance to frame the race as he sees fit for the foreseeable future.

The big budget vote: The number of Republican defections on the budget compromise was hardly overwhelming Thursday, as the bill passed with 260 votes. But the tea party sent a message.

Fifty-nine Republicans — a handful more than rejected a short-term continuing resolution a few weeks ago — rejected the bill, while another 179 voted in favor. That three in four Republicans voted for the bill demonstrates a fair amount of party unity, even though some on the right were clearly looking for much bigger cuts.

On the Democratic side, 81 voted yes and 108 voted no, in what amounts to a more divided reaction to the compromise Obama and Democratic leaders helped orchestrate.

On the Senate side, the bill passed even more easily, 81 to 19.

Notable ‘no’ voters included most of the House’s and Senate’s tea party-affiliated members, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Mike Pence (R-Ind.), Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), all of whom are eyeing or running for higher office.

Redistricting update: Arkansas and Oklahoma are both moving forward with redistricting maps that are unlikely to change much in their current delegations.

Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D) on Thursday signed into law a congressional redistricting plan that should have little impact on the current map. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s congressional delegation has agreed on its own status quo plan, which sailed through a state House committee vote.

Though Democrats controlled the process in Arkansas, they chose not to overhaul the map, which could have given them a better chance at winning seats. Instead, a map that flipped from three Democrats and one Republican to one Democrat and three Republicans in November will remain largely the same.

That the Democrats chose not to be too ambitious with the map means they miss one of relatively few opportunities to add winnable districts. Arkansas is one of just three states where Republicans hold a majority of congressional seats but Democrats get to draw the lines. (At the same time, outside of Little Rock, it’s hard to find territory that isn’t conservative, so it’s not clear how Democrats could have done much better.)

In Oklahoma, Republicans control the process and could try to make things tough for Democratic Rep. Dan Boren, but Boren has held down a very conservative district for a while now, and Republicans in the delegation seemed happy to keep their four-to-one majority.

Fixbits:

Mitt Romney accuses Obama of demagoguery.

Obama thinks birtherism works in his favor.

Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) is staffing up for a potential challenge to Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Nebraska Attorney General Jon Brun ing (R) stands by his embattled fundraiser, onetime Warren Buffett heir apparent David Sokol. The Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly looking into an insider trading probe of Sokol, but Bruning insists there is nothing criminal involved.

Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) is set to endorse Romney for president.

Former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) is running for her old seat, which she lost to Rep. Frank Guinta (R) last year — setting up a second potential rematch in the Granite State. But she may face primary opposition from former state Senate president Maggie Hassan or DNC member Joanne Dowdell.

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) raised $1.1 million in the first quarter and has $2.1 million in the bank.

Meanwhile, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) raised $1.1 million and has $1.5 million on hand, significantly outraising his likely GOP opponent, Rehberg, who raised $580,000 million and had $933,000 on hand.

Bob Vander Plaats’s Iowa conservative group will decide this fall whether to endorse in the GOP presidential primary.

Must-reads:

“Independent groups expected to raise hundreds of millions” — Jessica Yellin and Kevin Bohn, CNN

“Trump’s a joke” — Charlie Cook, National Journal

“Census shows declining black population shares in U.S. metro areas, stirring redistricting fights” — AP

“Rumors of Democrats’ demise in the Senate are slightly exaggerated” — Nate Silver, New York Times

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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

The Fast Fix: Is Obama now unbeatable? (The Newsroom)

Will Osama bin Laden's death impact the 2012 presidential election?

The death of Osama bin Laden is a momentous episode in American history that will undoubtedly re-shape the political dialogue for weeks and months to come.

While making hard and fast predictions about what it all means for our politics is tough, there are a few ways in which the impact will be almost immediately felt.

First, there will be a period of putting aside partisanship, similar to what happened in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 2001 terrorist attack that introduced the world to bin Laden.

From statements of support by Republican presidential candidates to an impromptu rally outside of the White House last night, it's clear that at least for now, politics is on hold. The question, of course, is how long it will last.

Second, President Obama will likely experience a significant popularity boost in the aftermath of the news.

While the killing of Osama took a decade and involved three presidents and thousands of people, it was Obama who gave the order that ultimately led to the terrorist's death. It was Obama who announced the news last night. And it will be Obama who benefits most from a sense that he did what he said he would do.

This is a significant moment in the Obama presidency -- perhaps the biggest moment. Amidst the celebrations and renewed patriotism, it's easy to assume that bin Laden's death will be a significant issue in 2012. But, history has shown that a struggling economy trumps all else in electoral politics.

At the end of the day, the 2012 election will STILL be about the economy and how people feel about their financial futures.

But, this is a major win for president Obama that will buy him time and goodwill from the American people.

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Sunday, May 15, 2011

The Obama 2012 message: No one’s perfect


President Barack Obama is running for re-election in 2012. Bradley C. Bower/Bloomberg President Obama may have launched his reelection campaign earlier this week but he and his aides have given little indication about the message on which that campaign will be based.

Read between the lines, however, the first faint traces of the message have begun to emerge.

The first clue came in the two-minute web video released by the campaign to coincide with Obama filing papers with the Federal Election Commission to allow him to raise money for a 2012 bid

“I don’t agree with Obama on everything,” says a man from North Carolina identified as “Ed”. “But I respect him and trust him.”

Then, in an energy-themed event in Philadelphia on Wednesday, Obama reiterated that sentiment — hearkening back to a line he used during the 2008 campaign.

“I said, ‘I am not a perfect man and I will not be a perfect president,’” Obama reminded the audience. “But I can promise you this: I will always tell you where I stand. I will be honest with you about the challenges we face and how we can solve these problems.”

The emergence — or re-emergence — of the “no one’s perfect” message suggests that the Obama campaign wants to do two things simultaneously heading into 2012: acknowledge that his first term had its fair share of bumps and play into the fact that, through it all, the American public still likes him.

Let’s take the second point first.

In a March Pew poll, 58 percent of people had a favorable impression of the President on a personal level while 39 percent had an unfavorable view of him. In that same survey his job approval rating was 51 percent while disapproval stood at 39 percent.

Those numbers are in keeping with a long-term trend for President Obama; his policies are often less popular than he is.

That reality gets us back to the first part of the Obama messaging strategy.

Knowing that he retains a considerable amount of personal goodwill among independents, the Obama campaign will try to leverage those positive feelings into a reelection argument that focuses more on the personal than the policy.

In many ways, that’s a return to the Obama messaging of 2008. Because he had a very limited record on which to run, Obama focused the campaign on the idea that he — and not any specific policy for which he advocated — was the key to transforming the wy Washington worked.

Of course, Obama now has a record he will need to run on and the 2010 election proved that some of his policies — the health care bill most especially — were not particularly popular with electorally critical independent voters. (Democrats lost independents by 19 points in 2010 after winning them by 18 points in the 2006 midterms.)

While the White House has continued to insist that the health care bill can be turned into a political positive by the time 2012 rolls around, the focus on Obama the person (and, left unsaid but not unimportant in this conversation, the historical figure) is an insurance policy of sorts for this White House.

Political independents, much less so than partisans, tend to not be all that motivated by a candidate’s specific positions on issues. What typically motivates them more are personal traits — does the candidate understand the problems of people like you, does he seem to have the country’s best interests at heart etc. And that sentiment is where Obama hopes to make political hay with the “not perfect but worth trusting” idea.

With 2012 almost certain to pull out both parties’ bases in equal fervor, independents will likely be the deciding factor in deciding whether Obama returns to the White House for a second term. It’s no surprise then that the early messaging of his re-election bid is focused squarely on that group.

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